Iraq (phlog)

Short commute so short phlog. Iraq... is anyone surprised? What did we expect when we withdrew our armed forces? That an inexperienced government in a country rife with religious and ethnic division and extremism would sort itself out? Do we really learn nothing from history? I think the honest truth, and this is true of the majority of Americans, is we didn't bother to care. Based on the political dialogue and media around Iraq from the start of the war to when we pulled out, it seems clear that we value the lives of our own more than the lives of others. How many Iraqi lives is one American soldier worth? If one American dies saving ten Iraqis, did the world benefit or lose? Did America benefit or lose?

Airline Inefficiency (phlog)

So I'm reading Atlas Shrugged, which is interesting and appeals to me. Not completely, but maybe 80%. One of the underlying themes is how pride in ones work drives efficiency, something I totally can relate to. Even more so because I'm on a plane and just really annoyed by how inefficiently people are boarded onto planes... it is even more annoying by how easy a problem it is to fix. Load the back of the plane first! So damn simple. No one gets blocked by people in front of them settling into their seats.

Recently (as in, within the last few years) airlines have started a phased approach to loading, which would work if they loaded the back zones first! The fact that they decided to start phase loading but not back to front drives me mental. Am I missing something here? I would bet that this "one simple trick" would cut loading times in half. That could equal an extra departure or two a day at busy gates. I don't know if demand is that high for airport gates, but a smart person must be able to monetize efficiency.

Then again, if airlines were run by efficient people, they would make money. 

end rant. end phlog.

P.S. (non-phlogged) - Interesting article I found later on this very issue, although I think this solution might be too complicated so not followed. That being said, the article claims back to front to be the least efficient method with block boarding, although I haven't see block boarding being done front to back myself... at least, whenever I have a back seat ticket it seams the entire flight has already been loaded. Maybe it's the same problem of people not following the load order. Anyway, good to follow up, and I might have to admit (later) that I was wrong ;P

Another Terrible Article about Ukraine

Following up on yesterday's rant, a good example of terrible journalism:

http://www.voanews.com/content/crisis-in-ukraine-stirs-fears-of-new-nuclear-arms-race/1913697.html

Let me sum it up for you:

US and Russian military drills (pretty standard exercises, btw) have "raised fears of a new nuclear arms race between the U.S. and Russia." Blah Blah fear-mongering, blah blah, some somewhat interesting but irrelevant historical context, followed by an academic saying "fears of nuclear fallout from the Ukraine crisis are unfounded". Duh...so basically her conclusion is that the title of her article is complete BS. This waste of time article popped up as one of the top articles for "World News" today in my phone app.

Where is Ukraine?

So... I'm commuting from NYC to Bridgeport and thought I'd try blogging from my phone. I've decided to call this phlogging, probably because by the end I'd rather be flogged than do this again...

I'm trying that new swipe keyboard on my Nexus 5. Takes a little getting used too but best thing about it? No space bar necessary! The dumb thing is I have my laptop in my bag but on a crowded train it is too cumbersome. 

So what to phlog about? Let's try something topical; Russia. Actually, I meant Ukraine, but I'll leave the error since it's part of my point.

First, the usual disclaimers: I have no idea what I'm talking about. The thing that has prompted me to write this is that I feel neither does anyone else...

The Western world usually lacks any real understanding of local conflicts until long after they're "resolved", if then. Yugoslavia, and to a lesser extent Cyprus (speaking of which: WTF EU court?  Greece is way too influential in the EU) are good examples of this, and that's within Europe. Don't really feel the need to point out our utter ignorance of Africa, South America, and Asia.

To some extent ignorance should be expected. People are selfish and by extension so are nations, since they are merely extensions of the individual people running them.However, there should be experts somewhere that can give a somewhat objective view of what is going on... and I haven't been able to find one yet.

The closest thing was this Forbes article that got it completely wrong. I remember in the original article the author was mocking the idea of a Crimea referendum having any impact on the situation. That part of the article was removed... I remember when I first read it thinking "this guy doesn't really grasp what is going on". 

Of course, nothing on TV or any major news outlets felt that enlightening either, but before I went on a rant on this, I did a quick Google search for scholarly commentary on Ukraine. I was happy to see at least one major newspaper give the experts some voice.

However, my original complaint still stands. I feel the focus of most commentary is on Russia, ignoring what is in many ways a Ukrainian ethnic conflict. Even as I write this, I can't believe I'm trying to defend either Russia or Putin, and I promise never to do it again. In fact, Putin is making a terrible situation worse, but the EU and US are focusing on the wrong problem (Russia), so are coming up with the wrong solutions (sanctions). Yes, let's drag the world into a trade war with the world's eighth largest economy. I think Russia knows we're bluffing, even if we don't...

After the Orange Revolution I did a report on Ukraine for a final paper. Remember my disclaimer: I know nothing. The reason I did the report, however, was because I was drawn to the issue of ethnic relations. I saw lots of similarities to what happened in Cyprus and what happened in Kosovo, and my conclusion was that Ukraine was ripe to become a divided nation... so my biggest pet peeve with the current situation is how easy it is for people to think Russia is behind everything. 

Ironically, by not really addressing the current crisis from a Ukrainian perspective, we're already accepting Russian sovereignty. End result? Ukraine will probably be three provinces short this time next year. A lot of offended and outraged Western politicians will be back to business as usual with Russia, and a couple Russian billionaires will be multi millionaires after the sanctions wear off... not to mention all the middle class Russians who will get knocked down the socioeconomic ladder a couple rungs. 

end commute. end phlog.

“Secretly we hate each other”

Yesterday I went to a small city in the Southwest of Macedonia called Kichevo (Kërchovë) to get some business owners to fill out the survey for my thesis. This meant that I had to sit down with each business owner after being introduced by my friend, ask them to fill out the survey, and then we would chat over coffee for an hour or so.

The first person I met was a former business owner whose name was Ibrahim (not his real name). Since he no longer owned a business, he didn't really qualify for my survey, so instead I thought it would be interesting to just have an informal interview. I took notes and got his permission to quote him in my thesis. I found the interview fascinating, and wanted to share some of the main points below.

The first part of the interview centered on the nature of the business and if it was profitable. Ibrahim explained that the business was very seasonal, so it was busiest right before New Years and during the summer months when all the emigrants returned home. Averaged out, it made around 300-400 euros/mo., which is around the average salary in Macedonia.

He also mentioned that 99% of his customers were Albanian, but he didn't think this had to do with any inherit discrimination. Ibrahim explained that the bigger reason was that his shop was a bit more high end, so the only people who could afford his products were the Albanians and Macedonians working abroad, but that the Albanian population had a much higher percentage of emigrant workers than the Macedonian population.

This led to a discussion about communist era discrimination that caused the current situation where over half the city’s population is working overseas. Basically, according to Ibrahim, Albanians had found it nearly impossible to get jobs into any kind of state-run organization or company under a Slavic Yugoslavia. Since under communism nearly everything was state-run, this left the Albanian minority with only two-options: farm their land in the villages, or move abroad and get work. The government was happy to encourage Albanians to get visas to leave the country, since they figured that the emigrants would not return.

The percentage of emigrants is also higher in Kichevo because, unlike other Albanian areas, there is less fertile farmland along the mountainside, and also because there was an energy plant built on Albanian lands. This is a sore spot for Albanians around Kichevo, since the government took Albanian lands to build this plant and then bused in Macedonian workers. Even though the area around the plant is majority Albanian, less than 25% of the plant employees are Albanian. This is a good example of why the Albanian minority feels a bit resentful over the way they are treated by the Macedonian state.

When I asked Ibrahim why he stopped his business, his answer was very clear: custom corruption. He was importing his products from abroad, and every time he went to customs to pick up his shipments, they would infinitely delay releasing his goods until he paid the custom employees. This is an important point because for most of the business owners I have talked to, more than any kind of ethnic discrimination or tension, it is corruption and the non-business-friendly laws that they see as causing the most problems within Macedonia.

Lastly, I asked Ibrahim how he saw the current relationship and future relationship between Albanians and Macedonians. He mentioned that at the moment they collaborate and work together, but ‘secretly we hate each other’. He also mentioned that the only real hope for the future is due to the policies of the U.S and the European Union. Once Macedonia joins the EU, the Albanians will be able to cross freely to Kosovo and Albania and so have a kind of unity by default. Also, being part of the EU will force the government to abide by certain laws that allow for economic development and protect minority rights, preventing the government from following a lot of the policies they do at the moment.

I also asked what would happen if Macedonia was blocked from joining the EU for some reason, and although Ibrahim didn't think that would happen, if it did he supposed that the Albanians would push for a split federation for their part of the country or similar kind of ethnic-based territorial separation. 

All in all, a very interesting interview and one that I felt was a fair reflection of the perspective and grievances of many Albanians living in Macedonia. 

Sincerely,

Mr. Loew

Skopje, Macedonia

originally written on Sunday, March 9, 2014

Introducing Mr.Loew 2.0 - Blogger Refresh

I am back in Macedonia to try and finally finish my Master’s thesis (that I started in 2009). The deadline is Wednesday, so that means I have another year or so to finish it. For those not familiar with the Balkans, ‘deadlines’ are like the ‘Pirates Code’ in Pirates of the Caribbean: “they’re more like guidelines, anyway”. Not to mention my mentor is away in the States on a Fulbright until the end of August, so I have pretty solid grounds for an extension.

I put aside a week to print up my surveys and pass them around, but it’s going to take another week to get even the minimum number I need, so will be back in the summer and then hoping to come back and defend the thesis in September.

Anyway, getting back into an academic frame of mind inspired me to try blogging again. In order to avoid it being a short lived inspiration, I am going to focus this blog on three topics:

1.  International Relations (I am expecting the first couple to be related to Macedonia)
2. U.S. Politics
3. My views on economics

For now, I’ll shy away from my own religious beliefs, or maybe if this goes well, I will set up a separate blog for that.

Sincerely,

Mr. Loew

Skopje, Macedonia

originally written on Sunday, March 9, 2014